This essay was originally written in response to “What happens when the problems interact?” By Alex Andreou on politics.co.uk

Please read to the end, as it brings to light a most vulnerable circumstance of Brexit which has yet to be considered in public.

840 words
Thank you.
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Brexit: It will feel like a war, because it will be.

Old Wall Street saying, “Never deny someone the right to pay retail for their education.”

The evolving world has become increasingly complex, and the question is: What level of negative supply shocks and logistic vulnerabilities can a modern, ordered society withstand? The more complex the entity, the more uncontrollable the outcome.

IF the UK had a trusted, unambiguous election, AND clear unanimous nationwide support for Brexit, AND 6-8 years to prepare, AND a budget of 40-50 billion pounds(at least, really), AND well-managed central planning, AND the best computer programmers, AND the brightest people addressing the known contingencies, there would still be devastating economic vulnerabilities in this unravelling of a nation.
In a world evolving as rapidly as today, Contingency Planning of this complexity within any time frame in order to disassemble 45 years of intertwined legal, regulatory, legislative, economic and logistical infrastructure is beyond the capacity and scope of humans to manage. Like shooting spit wads at a battleship.

But imagine the content of here and now – with this government cabinet of showmen, and myopic addicts of self-enrichment. With their language of Eurozone antagonism, Raab, Sunak, Banks, Farage, among others, all think they’re going to swing a few big deals. Oh sure, the very currently wealthy among them will live comfortably outside of the UK, but these are opportunistic children playing with fire and gasoline. Useful idiots. Trade deal with Trump? BWAAAHAHAHA.

All Brexit forecasts of small and precise declines in GDP, or similar calculated guesses however crafted, represent an impact assessment within an orderly controlled environment.

Simply stated, Brexit is not going to be controllable. When the immediate questions about unmitigated regulatory responsibilities, unresolved treaty interpretations and trade related transactions begin to rapidly unravel and steamroll, the EU’s default (along with the rest of the world) will be to cease the interface until it’s resolved.

Within 72-96 hours, the plug has been pulled, and no amount of speeches or goodwill or money will stop the cascading avalanche of no-longer-controllable services. The logistical chaos in the first 1-2 weeks will set the stage for a snowballing of societal chaos which, by Christmas, will lead to non-sensationalized stories in sober media using “UK” and “humanitarian crisis” in the same paragraph.

We’ve all seen the agonizing nature videos of the lone wildebeest drifting from the herd at just the wrong time. There will be no domestic winners. It will take a generation in poverty to sort out and another generation to recover prosperity as a nation. All self-imposed, so don’t expect any sympathy from the EU27, especially when problems cascade across the continent. If you thought what GoldmanSachs did to Greece 18 years ago was harsh, just wait until the worlds money centers get finished with London.

But don’t worry, Wall Street is rewriting your rules as you’re reading this. “What, no codified constitution? Well, what a shame. You know, I just happen to have one here in my briefcase…” And your trade agreements. And the contracts for your sold-off infrastructure and services. And your for-profit NHS. It’s out of your hands now. So much for sovereignty. And about economic chaos, name a time or event in history where the common people survived intact. I’ll wait…

Unfortunately, this is a best-case scenario because it implies no outside influence. But here’s the kicker…
We can be assured there will be outside influence. And we know from where: Glavset/IRA/MediaSintez/MixInfo/Azimut/Novinfo/Concord/Savushkina 55.

In the middle of the slightest defenseless chaos, the UK will be attacked. They’ll be tossing accelerants into the mix. A disinformation campaign with a motive of chaos and division of the people. Simply planting a few well-timed stories about interruptions in bank payments and transactions, real or imagined, where just a seed of doubt in worldwide payments becomes apparent…and KABOOM. Instant distrust, just like a bank run, only UK wide. It won’t take much, and with not so much interference as to illicit sympathy or victimhood. “They did it to themselves,” they’ll say. Tip of the iceberg. Eleventh Night in Trafalgar. Just more “Project Fear”, right? You ain’t seen nothing like it…

It will feel like a war, because it will be. A very modern war. History will say the first of it’s kind. “…military means of a concealed character.” Gerasimov is on it and Vlad can hardly wait. All for pennies, and without firing a shot.

To anyone with complex Contingency Planning experience it was obvious from the beginning. Surviving Brexit intact, No-Deal to Good Deal was impossible, even in peacetime. And it’s impossible because of DETAILS. The uncontrollable unmitigated volume of 45 years of evolved, interwoven societal details. That’s the complex world of today.

But now, add the targeted external vulnerabilities. Again, what can a modern ordered society withstand? If you weren’t sure in June 2016, you CAN be sure in September 2019. Boris needs to put a stop to this…

As Lord Davies said in the upper chamber, “self-delusion, fundamentally and systematically underestimating that which you’re dealing with.”

For reference:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/05/gerasimov-doctrine-russia-foreign-policy-215538